Go Zune!

So the Zune share of hard drive MP3 players is not really 9.9 for January, it's really much less than that. (Unless someone can help me understand how adding in the sales from Amazon, Costco, Sam's, Walmart and the Apple stores would NOT result in an increase in the iPod's market share and a lesser number for Zune.)

That's the first data I've seen on ZMP. Nice to see people trying out the Zune Pass. To me, it's one of the best things about Zune.

Harvey

Zunerama

Zune case sales are steadily increasing at the zuneone store so I know they must be selling well.  

I am very excited to see what you have in store for later in the year.

Good numbers all things considered I think.  Of course 20% would be even better.

oh, Dan. ;) to you, Zune is always guilty until proven innocent eh? jk - you know I love your comments here man

It's a nice time for the team to build on this and come up with more models and features. #2 sounds good. 10% - not so good. :-)

Well Cesar I'm just assuming that there weren't very many Zune sales at Apple's stores, but I could be wrong on that one!  ;-)

The reality is that until Zune has a variety of models to compete with, the numbers really don't mean that much right now. We know that the Zune has sold more than zero and less than a million, but the real action will be next holiday season.

I hope you guys come out with some interesting flash based models, and I'm curious as to what Apple will do with their next gen iPods later this year.

Number 2 is good since iPod is pretty popular and established in the industry.  Congrats on the marketplace statistics!

"New numbers from the NPD Group put Zune's market share at 9.9 percent among hard-drive based portable music players in January...down from 10.2 percent market share in December...not the direction the company wants to be headed over time."

Zune may have a 9.9% share of the hard drive music player market, but they continue to have a 0.0% share of the flash drive music player market.

The overall NPD-December numbers were 11.0% for Sandisk, and 2.6% for Zune. In overall share, it's a safe bet that Zune continues to be a very distant #3.

Tom - true, but we *do* have 100% of the brown mp3 market ;) I keed, i keed.

Ouch 2.6.  That doesn't sound as good as 9.9.  

You guys are the biggest software company in the world.  I think if you sat down and added something to the firmware that no other MpP3 devices have (like radio over the WIFI, being able to buy songs over WIFI, or a web browser) you could attract a lot more people and it would cost you hardly anything.  

Kyle, whole story (I notice that you often comment here, but always w/ a different name - welcome!):

as far as defining the segments, would you say that there are different segments in the category? If it's all the same, then yes, definitely, we're at 2.6%. but here's why I think there are different categories: apple, creative, and others have more than one player in the market. different sizes.

And this is now the third month of a multi-year commitment - which means we'll have some up months, and some down months :)

The 9.9% isn't nearly as interesting to me as the "the number two spot".  While the percentages would change once you added in all the other outlets I doubt they'd change enough to knock the Zune from the number two place.

Impressive considering it's been out, what, 3 months?

I owned an original XBox pretty much from day one and watching the Zune progress makes me feel oddly nostaglic.  There was as much if not more critism for the XBox, with almost all of the same types of complaints, arguments, fears and issues.

I'd fathom a guess that the Zune is doing better 3 months after it's release than the XBox did.  Any numbers to back me up/prove me wrong Cesar?  

What about international sales?  I assume the NPD numbers are for the USA only.  If not then launching the Zune in Europe, Australia and Canada will help your percentage.

Just an idea.

TomT, I'd say that statistics are a very funny thing.  Once you start trying to combine the various markets you get some weird ways to skew the numbers.  For example, do cell phones count as flash-based music players?  Where do CD Walkmans that can play MP3-filled CD-Rs fall?

I think a lot depends on what you are using the numbers for.  If you're trying to gauge your business you use one set, if you want to make the divison look good in a board meeting you use another, if you want to make Microsoft seem like they are doing relatively worse you use yet another.

Considering I could care less about flash-based players I think I'll take the 9.9% :)

Of all the things talked about here you all are missing the point... we are still talking only 3 months since the release, and i bet in another 3 months the numbers will be much better............GO ZUNE

Are these numbers available somewhere? Are they released to the public or only to you guys?

to reply:

Yes, I do think they are the same.  People go out looking to buy an mp3 player.  The nanos appeal to people because they are small and cheaper.  Most people I know don't know the difference between flash based mp3 players and HDD MP3 player.  

So I suppose it would be better if there was a flash based zune.  It seems like the majority of the MP3 player market is with flash based devices.

I do see the potential for the zune to take off.  Most of the bad publicity on the net is from people who sleep with their iPods.  Anyone I show the zune to is impressed.

But to beat out the competition you need to have more then them.  More reasons for people to give the zune a closer look and find the one feature that really appeals to them.

Right now, in the advertisements the feature that is shown the most is the sharing.  Initially people like it, but then they realize they don't know anyone with a zune, and then laugh when they see the "selected songs, 3 days or 3 plays, whichever comes first" in the corner of the screen.

For me the feature that got me to jump on the zune ship was the interface (and the huge screen).  Its similar to Windows Media Center and beats the hell out of the iPod.  I think if you can move away from just the "sharing" idea and focus on the device itself you would end up with more people interested with the product.

Just my 3 cents

forget Zune , acc. to apple sources, apple sold 21 (Twenty One) million ipods during the 2006 holiay season. overall 90 million ipods since 2001.

In an established mp3 player market , the new big entrant MS Zune is dying to sell i million Zunes in one year. thats sad.

Zune just can't survive. MS lacks the competitiveness. they give bits and pieces of s/w upgrades once in every quarter and all the zuners should celebrate it like a big deal.

Live on hope.

Considering that the flash players are smaller and more appealing to Kyle's crowd - Zune achieving this feat is a big deal.

But it should also be noted that all the major ones have moved to flash players. iRiver stopped manufacturing hard-drive based players. I can only think of Creative's Zen as the only other competitor in the market.

Considering that your locked into Zune marketplace, I don't think those numbers for increased use are at all impressive.  I do have to admit that no matter what numbers are released, the drinkers of the ipod koolaid, will find fault.  owning just under 10% of the market would mean huge numbers for Zune, no other hard drive player has come close to keeping those type of numbers for a quarter.  Let's hope that when MS fixes some of the zune bugs and add a couple features taking advantage of wifi or let you play your 360 content on your zune (I would love to have my video content available on my zune), they have the potential to at least make a bigger splash than the others who have made an attempt.

Fact is no one is going to knock apple off the top of this hill but having viable options for those of us who hate itunes is nice.  Now make Zune a Plays for Sure device and let us chose our music subscription.

i think number 2 is really good. the zune hasn't been out as long as the ipod and not many of my friends got the ipod until the mini came out

Ratings aside, Zune's #1!

I am really impressed with your first Zune. All you need to do is learn from this one and improve. To that guy praying for Zune's downfall'. Sorry man....Zune can only go up, get over it and breath in.

Yes I do post here often with different names...but with the same IP address :)

The main reason that I disagree with the statement of there being different markets is because of DRM...yep, that's right...there's a reason that I havent' heard anyone mention yet.

With DRM (ignoring the Zune Pass right now), then the Zune can't be compared by the device only.  With DRM, once you buy your music from the Zune Marketplace or iTunes...you are going to be more likely to stay with that product family through it's entire life.  If I were to switch away from my iPod right now I'd have to re-buy all my music...that's a significant hassle and cost that most people aren't going to do.  Same in reverse with the Zune...unless people just get fed up with it and go running.

Now considering the Zune Pass...I compare that subscription model to compare with the portable XM radios and the like.  There, the MP3 players with subscription plans have an advantage...they work indoors!!!

In the end...I would like to see a good competitive product that could run against the iPod...because in the end, the consumer will benefit from the competition.  However, at this rate...the Zune is going to end up right next to the Gigabeat

I think satellite radio is dying.  No one wants to pay for something they already get for free.

Has Microsoft considered selling firmware updates in the Zune Marketplace instead of music? They're in demand! They don't need to actually do anything, people just seem to like applying them...

To reply to the DRM, there have always been ways to convert the iTunes file to an mp3. I don't see how this is a major issue. Just google it. m4a to mp3. It's not hard to strip the drm off of anything.

Just got the Zune from my wife.

Its great, my kids all have Ipods and are really impressed with the Zune, so much so that I might have to keep it under lock.

IMO if the numbers from the non reporting stores were added in, I think the share would improve.

For example at my local Costco...Lots of Ipods but the Zune bin is always down to just a couple.

Kyle, I agree satellite radio is dying and that was sort of my point...although I probably didn't express it clearly enough.

The Zune pass or other subscriptions are nice for a while...but I know that I for one would not want to be stuck paying $X / month for the rest of my life just to listen to music...whether it be satellite radio or an MP3 subscription plan.

Similarly, in my area I've noticed that FM radio stations that primarily played music all day 3-5 years ago...now have talk shows most of the day.  Why?  I think it is because a good portion of their listeners would rather be able to control the music they listen to via their MP3 player rather than be stuck to the crap they play.

Regarding iTunes music conversion...yes it is possible, but not something that I really want to go through for my 1000's of songs unless I really had to or was really fed up with my iPod.  Neither of those scenarios apply so Apple TV, iPhone, and next-gen iPod here I come...further entrenching me and the rest of the population into the iTunes store.

Again...I hope that the Zune or some other player eventually gives iPod a run for it's money.  But its going to take a company dedicated to fully polishing the entire system (device, media store, and software) BEFORE they release it...this isn't exactly MS's business model.

One problem I can foresee with subscription music is if I don't have internet access for a week - all my music probably might not play. (not that I have been without internet for a week :) )

Someone posting as Ballmer said:

"Ratings aside, Zune's #1!"

Funniest thing I've read all week. ;-)

So, since the NPD numbers don't include iPod sales from the Apple Store, I'd have to say those numbers are pretty much worthless. Makes a good "sound byte" and quick "fact-filled" story, though, doesn't it?

Diego: here's some info about NPD: http://npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=profile_s.html

Cesar, happy to see you are not taking Ballmers blind estimate of um um, 20-25%.

http://zuneinsider.com/archive/2007/01/19/market-share-december.aspx

"....and we took, I don’t know, but I think most estimates would say we took about 20-25%" Said Ballmer.

well done with the figures cesar,

zune phone rumors for anyone interested:

http://www.cliczune.com/2007/03/zune_phone_rumo.html

2.6% or 9.9%...

Any way you slice it, that a pretty solid market share for a product that's only been released for 100-ish days in ANY market... CONGRATS!

Oh.. and Ray. I checked out those Zune Phone patents. et me just say "remotely controlling a media device"??? Count me in!

:)

Add good Video to the ZMP and you will have me talking up and gifting enough devices to NYC constituents that will change that 9% to 20%, promise.

What a week! The Zune Markeplace editorial team got featured in the Seattle P-I. Readers expressed their

Ah Apple losers!

Zune at 9 - 10% after 3 months = failure

OSX after 5 years at 6% = roaring success?

Awesome news. 2nd in sales and 10% are GREAT news.

@Zune Insider - Readers expressed their...

What did they express?

Under fair disclosure, I'd really like to know how many people who posted are Microsoft employees. Does it matter? Yep.

Here are the overall NPD-January Numbers:

Rank Brand                   Unit Share

 1   Apple                      72.7%

 2   Sandisk                     8.9%

 3   Microsoft                   3.2%

 4   Creative Labs               2.9%

 5   Samsung                     2.0%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=HPQ:US&sid=ap0bqJw2VpwI

3.2... wao! You Zunies are really killing the market. Good luck getting to 72.7...

Here's an interesting read on Market Share numbers:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/FFE4A8E2-9816-4344-9FB0-61BED246674C.html

"Interesting" is one way to put it ;)

You don't think that guy is a mac fanboy, do you Cesar?

;-)